A survey by CNBC’s Global CFO Council has found that 75% of top executives bet on Biden’s win in the 2020 Presidential Election.
In the principal six swing states, the concern for the coronavirus has decreased, according to a new Change Research survey. As a result of that, President Donald Trump’s approval rating has improved by a bit. Despite that, the Q3 survey run by the CNBC’s Global CFO Council says seventy-five percent of the global CFOs and executives predict that Joe Biden will win the presidential election of 2020.
The Q3 survey stated 75% of top executives bet on Biden to win in the 2020 Presidential Election
The 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination was accepted by former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. His acceptance was made at the Chase Center in Delaware, on August 20, 2020, for the predominantly virtual Democratic Convention. At the same time, Trump had a favorability rating of 48% in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
His approval rating increased by 2% two weeks ago to 46%. Even with that, Trump still does not have the upper hand in betting as Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight gave Biden a 70 percent out of 100, and CNBC’s Global CFO Council gave Joe Biden a 75 percent chance of winning. North American based members gave Biden the same number of winning percentages.
If you do not know, the CNBC Global CFO Council is a representation of the largest public and private companies from all over the world. It manages more than 5 trillion USD in market value, encompassing a wide range of sectors. This year the Q3 survey ran from August 7 to August 22, and 40 global members of the council provided their opinion.
Apart from the Presidential race, about 63 percent of North American members said that the Senate and the House would both remain controlled by the same parties as today. On the other hand, 25 percent of them believe that Democrats are taking back the Senate for sure.
Why are the bets on Biden?
There has been an analysis of why the odds are in favor of Joe Biden. The result looks like the current global recession has a lot to do with it. A struggling economic situation usually affects the existing president. But this year’s election situation is pretty much the rarest thing, as this recession is only the third formal recession to take place since World War 2 ended.
The previous two elections that took place during a recession were in 1948 and 1980. In 1948, Harry Truman was reelected, but in the 1980 election, Jimmy Carter could not win reelection. So, the general statistics do not help much in this situation.
In the middle of this current crisis and recession, Trump will face an enormous challenge. Because among the three recessions, this year’s one is by far the worst since World War 2. The World Bank stated that the global economy collectively shrank by 5.2 percent. The economy in the United States is expected to shrink by 6.1 percent this year.
The survey denotes that the top executives and CFOs are foreseeing the same amount of downturn when it comes to the global economy. On an aggregate, 7 out of 11 regions globally are decreasing, and the rest are steady. The response was provided by the survey respondents. More than 62 percent said the outbreak is their largest external risk factor, and 80 percent shared that the coronavirus is having a negative effect on the business.
The effect of COVID-19 is the obvious answer to why businesses decided to cut jobs. More than half of the respondents claim that over the course of the next year, they are going to lay off workers; only about 32 % of respondents in North America expect a reduced workforce.
So, despite these executives having success under the reign of Trump, they are not satisfied with how their president is handling the pandemic situation. Trump was investigated and criticized by policymakers and politicians as being unresponsive to the disease’s outbreak and for not protecting the states.
Financial executives are furious to observe what they think is the U.S. fighting the disease outbreak, while Europe’s political and corporate troops have been more than able to fight the pandemic. The survey shows that the cases in the United States are far more than the number of cases in Europe.
According to an analyst in one of the respective corporate offices, it has made them dissatisfied with Donald Trump how Europe is outperforming them in dealing with the virus. But how the United States is structurally superior to Europe is nowhere close to the efforts in combating the pandemic.
With Biden announcing the new vice president, it definitely raised the executive’s belief in him. Based on the current situation, they definitely believe the economy is going to be more of a disaster under Trump’s presidency, and Biden can handle the situation better in the future.
Apart from the economic anxiety, the other factors are also working against Trump as he lost trust from a large demographic who voted for him in the last election. Trump is estimated to have lost popularity among white women. His lack of consideration for the welfare of returning school kids in the fall has led to a health-related frenzy. In doing so, he has managed to upset a large segment of the United States population.
Donald Trump is also losing votes from the voters of swing states, as the percentage of him winning there is still below 50 percent. The Quinnipiac poll shows that the chance of Trump losing in the swing state is now in a more significant margin.
The loss of votes from the older demographic and people without college degrees, which consists of a large portion of Trump’s support base, is going to work against Trump in the coming election. So, with this additional analysis, we see the chance of Trump winning in the 2020 election is pretty low.
The current economy is going down, and we only have Donald Trump to blame for the poor handling of the outbreak situation. As this keeps up, the executives are losing their trust in Trump with upholding the situation. The economic anxiety has led them against Trump, and 75% of the top executives are now betting on Biden. With only two months left until the election, we cannot wait to see if the betting is on the right track!
Don’t Miss Other Parts :
- US Election 2020 Updates (Part-1): List of Probable Incidents as the Election is Nearing
- US Election 2020 Updates (Part-2): Is Trump Feeling Incompetent after Seeing Biden’s Rising Popularity?
- US Election 2020 Updates (Part-3): The Forecast Model and the Right Presidential Candidate
- US Election 2020 Updates (Part-4): Why Trump Says Ivanka is Better than Kamala Harris as VP